Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
