Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
